Rates and currencies
US 10-year Treasury yield today
What the US government pays to borrow for ten years. It sets the tone for mortgages and borrowing costs around the world, and moves in basis points (hundredths of a percentage point).
4.84%down −5.7 bptoday
Closed · last price
Prices from the exchanges, some 15 minutes late. Past moves say nothing about future ones.
Key numbers
- Previous close
- 4.89%
- Today’s range
- 4.83% – 4.91%
- 52-week range
- 3.96% – 5.31%
- 1 week
- down −15.2 bp
- 1 month
- down −43.2 bp
- 3 months
- up +16.7 bp
- This year
- up +67.4 bp
- 1 year
- up +68.0 bp
Why is the 10-year yield down today?
The 10-year yield is down 5.7 bp today, at 4.84%. Central banks lean tighter, while the stock selloff is under way.
Central banks lean toward tighter policy
The Bank of England raised its base rate from 3.75% to 4% and warned another rise may follow. The Czech bank also raised rates, and Norway signaled it may tighten.
Read about it
Which way it leans, and how far it could go
Central banks lean tighter, while the stock selloff is under way. Trend: below its 50-day average and down 44 bp in a month.
A typical day: ±1.1% (±6 bp)
We keep score: every day each lean is checked a day later, and how often they were right will show here once 20 have been checked.
| Over the | Likely range | Wider range |
|---|---|---|
| Next hour | Closed | |
| Next day | 4.78% – 4.89% ±1.1% | 4.73% – 4.95% |
| Next week | 4.72% – 4.96% ±2.6% | 4.60% – 5.09% |
| Next month | 4.59% – 5.10% ±5.2% | 4.37% – 5.36% |
Where it should end the period two times in three (likely) and nineteen times in twenty (wider), if the coming days swing as much as the recent ones: a volatility forecast from its past year, weighted to the last weeks. Our lean puts together how today’s news bears on it and its trend; it can be wrong, and markets can move more. Not investment advice.
Coming up
- US jobs report High impact
It measures hiring, wages and unemployment in the world's largest economy. It guides expectations for Fed policy and moves stocks, bonds and the dollar.
Expected 0.3% · Last time 0.1%
- US consumer sentiment, early November Medium impact
A University of Michigan survey of how households view the economy and prices. It can affect views on spending and inflation.
Expected 48.1 · Last time 46.3
- US consumer price inflation High impact
The consumer price index tracks how fast prices rise for households. It strongly influences Fed rate expectations and moves bonds, stocks and the dollar.
- US producer prices Medium impact
The producer price index tracks price changes at the wholesale level. It can hint at inflation pressure that later reaches consumers.
- Federal Reserve rate decision High impact
The Fed sets the main US interest rate. Its decision and the press conference guide borrowing costs and prices across global markets.
If… US jobs report
- ▲Hiring and pay beat expectations. Strong jobs usually lift Treasury yields as rate expectations rise.
- ↕Data close to forecasts. Little surprise usually means small moves in yields.
- ▼Hiring and pay fall short. Weaker jobs usually pull Treasury yields lower.
On its last 11 release days US 10-year yield moved 2.5 bp on average, up or down; at most 5.9 bp.
If… US consumer price inflation
- ▲Inflation hotter than expected. Hot inflation usually pushes yields higher on rate worries.
- ↕Inflation in line with expectations. Without a surprise, yields usually move little.
- ▼Inflation cooler than expected. Cooler inflation usually lowers yields.
On its last 11 release days US 10-year yield moved 3.1 bp on average, up or down; at most 7.2 bp.
If… Federal Reserve rate decision
- ▲Fed raises rates. Rate hikes usually push Treasury yields higher.
- ↕Fed holds rates steady. Yields would depend on whether the tone sounds firm or gentle.
Our stories
Prices come from the exchanges and can be 15 minutes late; crypto trades around the clock. Today’s range is read every 15 minutes. Not investment advice.